Strong Crops vs Shifting Markets

September Harvest Outlook: Strong Crops, Shifting Markets 

  Top 3 Takeaways 

1. Strong harvest outlook with potential for above-average wheat yields.   

2. Currency swings continue to impact competitiveness.   

3. Surplus wheat supply keeps global markets under pressure. 

Timely rainfall has boosted crop growth across much of WA, lifting confidence that wheat yields could exceed long-term averages—if favourable spring weather continues. Optimism is growing as harvest draws near, though global market pressures and currency volatility remain front of mind. 

Crops are progressing well through key growth stages, with growers watching forecasts closely. The outlook is strong, provided the season finishes well. 

The AUD continues to be steady above the 0.66 mark, as a risk currency, the AUD is highly sensitive to global economic events and can unwind rapidly. While forecasts suggest a slow move higher over the next 6–12 months due to a weakening USD, unpredictability remains. 

Global Markets 

Wheat: Prices are under pressure from surplus supply, with Russia’s crop revised up to 87mmt, intensifying export competition. 

Barley: Market activity has quietened. China’s corn crop concerns and Argentina’s currency issues could influence demand and supply. 

Canola: Modest strength from soybean concerns, but global supply is solid. Export buyers signal Australian values may need to adjust.